Are Frosts Responsible for the Rise in Strawberry Prices?

On May 24, 2024, the Russian publication RBC posted an article titled “Strawberry Prices in Russia Have Increased by 20% Due to Spring Frosts. What Happened to the Harvest?” The author, Anna Zakharova, refers to the statistics from the data service “Check Index.” This analyst calculated data from 1.1 million cash registers across the country and compared current strawberry prices with those from the previous year. According to Zakharova’s publication that proclaims that strawberry prices in Russia have risen by 20% due to the frost in May, with the retail price for a kilogram of strawberries reaching 600 rubles.

Our team decided to investigate whether the spring frosts truly affected the price increase of strawberries, which has risen by a quarter compared to the previous year.

We analyzed strawberry production statistics in Russia, studied the impact of weather conditions on the berries, verified the occurrence of frosts in May 2024, and examined their impact on the crops. Additionally, we consulted experts to assess the accuracy of the claims made in the original article.

Strawberry Production Statistics

First, we looked at strawberry price statistics over the past few years. According to data provided by the Expert and Analytical Center for Agribusiness, it was found that from 2015 to 2019, the dynamics of average annual strawberry prices (per ton) imported into Russia showed significant growth, especially from 2017 onwards. This price increase for imported strawberries naturally influenced their market price for consumers.

Next, we examined strawberry production statistics in Russia. While specific studies on this topic are not available, it is known that around 20% of the strawberries on Russian store shelves are imported, and the remaining 80% are domestically produced. According to open data from the Unified Interdepartmental Statistical Information System (UISIS), Russia produces approximately 700,000 tons of berries annually. The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) reports that strawberries make up around 30% of this total, or roughly 210,000 tons.

At the same time, customs statistics show that the main sources of imported strawberries are Turkey (30,000 tons), Belarus (13,000 tons), and Serbia (6,000 tons).

This suggests that the Russian strawberry market is indeed heavily reliant on domestic production, as its part is much larger compared to imports.

The Impact of Frosts on Strawberries

The RBC article discusses the specific impact of weather conditions on the rise in strawberry prices. Author Anna Zakharova claims that the May frosts destroyed a large portion of the berry crops. We set out to determine whether this was a significant factor contributing to the price increase.

In May 23, 2024, publication titled “How to Revive Strawberries After Frosts,” the Russian Agricultural Center stated that strawberry flowers are vulnerable to frost damage at any time of the year after bud break (at -1°C or lower). Frost can damage the center of the flower, turning it black, while the petals and leaves may appear unaffected. The article also mentions that strawberries are indeed sensitive to cold, but this may depend on the variety.

“Strawberry flowers are susceptible to frost injuries at any time after emerging from the buds at temperatures from minus 1 degree and below. Frost damages the center of the flower, which turns black, although the plant’s leaves and petals appear intact. If from 5 to 7% of the flowers are lost, the total yield will decrease by 10-15% or more,” — the article says.

For this reason, scientific research is being conducted to breed new frost-resistant strawberry varieties, as noted in the study by Z. Ozherelyeva, P. Prudnikov, and M. Zubkova, titled “Assessment of the Frost Resistance of Strawberries” (Zoya O., Pavel P., Marina Z. Estimation of the frost resistance of strawberry // Biological Communications. – 2020. – Vol. 65. – No. 4. – P. 288-296). Similarly, studies on the frost resistance of strawberry varieties have been conducted by researchers from Iran, the United States, and Oman, focusing on the need to develop more frost-resistant varieties (Zareei E. et al. Physiological and biochemical responses of strawberry crown and leaf tissues to freezing stress // BMC Plant Biology. – 2021. – Vol. 21. – P. 1-17).

Examples of Crop Losses Due to Frosts

On May 11, 2024, Roman Vilfand, the head of the Russian Hydrometeorological Center, announced a temperature drop in all regions of the country during that month.

On May 16, 2024, Russian Agriculture Minister Oksana Lut confirmed this, reporting that 830,000 hectares of crops were destroyed by frosts, which accounts for 1% of the estimated crops in Russia.

On May 9, 2024, the news agency TASS published an article titled “Russian Ministry of Agriculture Says Crops Destroyed by Frosts Will Be Replanted.” The article quoted a ministry spokesperson stating that the return frosts had led to the destruction of agricultural crops in the Tambov, Voronezh, and Lipetsk regions. As a result, in some areas, crops would be replanted for the second time.

Thus, the data we examined confirms that frosts indeed worsened the condition of crops and, consequently, contributed to the rise in strawberry prices.

Economic Pricing

To understand the specifics of how weather conditions might influence price increases, we consulted an expert – Anna Alexandrovna Abrosimova, a candidate of economic sciences and associate professor at the Department of Information Technologies and Instrumental Methods in Economics. In her opinion, this process is a natural consequence of economic pricing.

“The price of a product, including strawberries, consists of several elements: the cost of production (cost of seeds, labor, utilities, etc.), the manufacturer’s markup for their services, transportation costs to the point of sale (which may involve an intermediary), and the retailer’s markup (which can vary widely). Therefore, if weather conditions change, such as with frosts, the production cost of the product increases, and the markup along the supply chain also tends to increase.”

For additional verification, we consulted an expert from X5 Group (which owns retail chains such as Perekrestok and Pyaterochka). According to the expert, who wished to remain anonymous, the difference in strawberry prices between 2024 and 2025 is noticeable. He also pointed out the importance of logistical challenges (for imports), as well as, in some cases, a decline in the quality of the berries. Regarding the frosts, the expert confirmed that it became a significant issue that required quick action, but by June, there was no longer a shortage of the product.

Conclusion

The economic pricing of a particular product is influenced by a variety of factors. Weather conditions can impact agricultural crops, and when crops are partially destroyed, the cost of producing the final product changes. Strawberries, by their nature, are sensitive to frosts, and their price is directly affected by the impact of frost on the yield. Furthermore, the Russian strawberry market heavily depends on domestic production. Based on the facts we verified, it is clear that sudden temperature fluctuations play a significant role in driving up strawberry prices. Therefore, this news is true.

Authors: Maria Zudina, Anna Sadovina, Alyona Manina, Daniil Buylov